Are Mega-Constellations Sleepwalking Low Earth Orbit into Runaway Chaos?

• The article discusses a new paper by Hugh G. Lewis from the University of Birmingham, highlighting the potential hazards of satellite megaconstellations.
• The paper updates existing models to account for active collision avoidance, continuous replenishment of satellites, and de-orbital drag profiles.
• It analyzes fourteen constellations, finding that more than half are above the unstable or runaway thresholds.
• SpaceX’s Starmind and Blue Origin’s Project Sunrise, along with China’s Guowang constellation, are above their runaway thresholds.
• The paper warns that if these constellations are approved and launched as planned, they could lead to orbital gridlock and Kessler syndrome.
• The paper also notes that regulators only consider the impact of a single satellite, ignoring the effects of millions in orbit.
• It emphasizes the need for better regulatory frameworks to prevent space debris from becoming a threat to humanity’s future in space.

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