Asteroid mining will crash the platinum market, but that's good news for Earth

A pair of system dynamicists from MIT explored whether asteroid mining could collapse the platinum group metal (PGM) market, which is vital for modern industry. AstroForge, a startup in California, aims to mine PGMs from metallic asteroids, using small, agile probes that cost only a few million dollars each to launch. The company's approach involves latching onto asteroids with magnets, vaporizing their crust with high-powered lasers, and refining PGMs onboard. According to their model, the first phase of asteroid mining could see a "space gold rush," with prices for PGMs initially held artificially high due to limited supply. This would drive private investment and expand production capacity, leading to industry profits skyrocketing to eight times current levels. However, over the next 15 years, the global supply of PGMs will exceed terrestrial amounts, causing prices to drop by over 75%. This would make high-cost terrestrial mines obsolete, but would benefit the world by making PGMs cheaper and more accessible, supporting the transition to a "green economy."

• AstroForge is one of the second round of asteroid mining startups focused on returning PGMs to Earth's market.
• The study predicts a two-phase transition in the PGM market, with the first phase seeing astronomical profit margins and the second phase leading to a significant drop in prices.
• The paper is published on the arXiv preprint server and authored by Robert T. Nachtrieb and Steven Smith.
• The authors argue that space-based mining will eventually replace terrestrial mining, leading to a more sustainable and cheaper supply of PGMs.
• The study highlights the potential benefits of space-based mining, including reduced environmental impact and lower costs for the global economy.

The article also mentions that the terrestrial mining industry may face challenges as space-based mining becomes more prevalent, but this would be beneficial for the world as a whole. The engineering challenges of transitioning to space-based mining are acknowledged, but the potential benefits are seen as significant. AstroForge has faced some high-profile failures during its development, but it is seen as a key player in making the future of green tech a reality. The study suggests that if AstroForge succeeds, the people involved could become extremely wealthy in less than two decades.

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